Petrol hit €1.90 this week. Home heating oil doubled in a week. The Irish Road Haulage Association is warning diesel will breach €2 per litre. It is happening again — the same conversation we had after Ukraine in 2022. Only this time, the used EV market looks very different to how it did then.
On 1 March 2026, the United States and Israel began military strikes on Iran. Within 24 hours, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply moves every day. Global oil prices jumped sharply, rising from around $72 a barrel toward $91 and beyond, with analysts at Barclays and RBC warning of $100 per barrel if the closure holds.
Irish drivers noticed within hours. Normally there is a lag of ten days or two weeks between a global oil shock and prices at Irish forecourts. This time, prices moved within 24 hours. By the end of the first week, diesel had risen by up to 26 cent per litre at some stations, with reports of prices nudging €1.98 in parts of the midlands.
Ireland sources most of its petrol and diesel from the North Sea — not the Persian Gulf. But oil is priced on international markets, and those markets are global. As ESRI senior research officer Muireann Lynch explained: "If the price jumps in Iran, of course it's going to jump in Norway. If you can sell your oil at a higher price, why wouldn't you?" Ireland spends approximately €1 million per hour on oil and gas. We are among the most fossil-fuel-dependent societies in Europe, and every global shock hits us directly through market pricing.
The situation is different from Ukraine in one important way: the Russia conflict disrupted gas and oil supply routes for an extended period, fundamentally shifting baseline prices. The Iran conflict currently affects the movement of oil more than the supply of it — but the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more likely a sustained price increase becomes. Analysts say the situation remains deeply uncertain.
The impact on Irish haulage companies is immediate and severe. Diesel is not a discretionary spend for a haulage operator — it is the single largest variable cost in running a truck. When diesel prices rise by 20% in a week, margins that were already thin become margins that don't exist.
The Irish Road Haulage Association has warned that diesel is likely to reach and surpass €2 per litre, and has urged the Government to introduce temporary supports for operators. The Coach Tourism and Transport Council of Ireland reported that between Monday and Thursday of this week, its members saw diesel rise from €1.64 to €1.88 per litre — a near 15% increase in four days. FTA Ireland, the freight transport body, called for government to explore temporary offset mechanisms, pointing out that the sector operates on extremely tight margins and cannot absorb rapid input cost shocks.
Fuel cost increases in haulage don't stay in haulage. They feed through to the price of everything transported by road — which in Ireland means almost everything. Groceries, construction materials, manufactured goods, farm inputs. Ireland imports around 80% of its food, beverage, and animal feed needs. If the conflict is prolonged, the inflationary impact on supermarket shelves is significant. This is what happened after Ukraine in 2022, and it took over a year for wages to catch up with prices.
The Government's current position is that there are no plans to cut excise duty — the approach taken during the Ukraine crisis when excise was reduced by 20c per litre on petrol and 13c on diesel. Opposition parties and the industry itself are pushing for action. Fuels for Ireland's CEO Kevin McPartlan made the point bluntly: excise now accounts for roughly 32% of the pump price of petrol and 27% of diesel. A €100 fill would cost €35 without it. Whether the Government moves on this depends on how long prices remain elevated.
For most people filling a family car, the maths is uncomfortable but not catastrophic — yet. The average Irish motorist drives approximately 17,000km per year. A 10 cent per litre increase on a car averaging 7L/100km adds roughly €119 per year to running costs. At 15 cent per litre, that becomes €178. At €2 per litre — if it gets there — a typical petrol or diesel car becomes significantly more expensive to run than it was six months ago.
| Fuel Price | Annual Fuel Cost (petrol, 17,000km, 7L/100km) | vs. February 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| €1.73 (Feb 2026 average) | €2,056 | Baseline |
| €1.83 (current average) | €2,175 | +€119/year |
| €1.95 | €2,317 | +€261/year |
| €2.10 | €2,499 | +€443/year |
Rural households are feeling the pressure most acutely — both at the forecourt and on home heating. The average 500-litre home heating oil delivery has gone from €495 to €833 in ten days — a 68% increase. For households without mains gas (a very large proportion of rural Ireland), this is not an optional cost. It is heat.
There have been widespread allegations of price gouging, with some consumers reporting that the same supplier who quoted €525 on a Saturday was charging €859 by Wednesday. The Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (CCPC) has been asked to investigate. The fuel industry rejects the gouging allegations, pointing to international wholesale prices and the practice of distributors changing prices multiple times a day in a volatile market.
Of every litre of petrol you buy, approximately 32% is excise duty — collected directly by the Government. When pump prices rise, the Government's tax take rises with it: roughly 5.5 cent in additional VAT for every 10 cent rise in price. The same mechanism that makes fuel expensive is the same mechanism that filled the Exchequer during the Ukraine spike. This is why calls to cut excise are both politically uncomfortable and fiscally logical at the same time.
This is the question. And unlike 2022, when it was largely rhetorical for most Irish buyers, in 2026 it has a more concrete answer.
When Russia invaded Ukraine and petrol hit €2.13 per litre in April 2022, the used EV market in Ireland was limited, expensive, and the charging infrastructure was patchy. A used Nissan Leaf with adequate range cost €18,000–€22,000. A Tesla Model 3 was €35,000+. Fast charging outside Dublin was an adventure. Most Irish buyers looked at EVs, concluded it wasn't practical yet, and kept their diesel.
The landscape is meaningfully different today.
A 62kWh Nissan Leaf e+ — with real-world range of 280–340km — can be bought used for €22,000–€32,000. A used Tesla Model 3 Long Range is €28,000–€38,000. A used Hyundai Ioniq 5 or Kia EV6, both with 400km+ real-world range and 350kW rapid charging capability, are available from €28,000–€40,000. These are not niche products. They are practical, mainstream cars with ranges that work for the vast majority of Irish daily use.
Charging an EV at home on a night rate (typically €0.10–€0.14 per kWh) costs roughly €2.50–€3.50 to add 100km of range. A petrol car at €1.90 per litre costs €13.30 to cover the same 100km at 7L/100km. That is a running cost difference of roughly €10 per 100km — or approximately €1,700 per year at average Irish mileage. At €2 per litre petrol, that gap widens further.
| Vehicle Type | Cost per 100km | Annual cost (17,000km) |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol at €1.90/L (7L/100km) | €13.30 | €2,261 |
| Diesel at €1.90/L (5.5L/100km) | €10.45 | €1,777 |
| EV (home charging, €0.12/kWh, 18kWh/100km) | €2.16 | €367 |
| EV (mixed home + public, est. €0.22/kWh avg) | €3.96 | €673 |
Ireland's public charging network is not perfect — rural fast charging still has gaps — but it has grown substantially. ESB ecars now operates hundreds of fast chargers across the country, and every major motorway service area has at least one rapid charger. For drivers with home charging (which covers the majority of daily driving needs), public charging is a convenience rather than a dependency.
An EV is not the right answer for everyone. If you live in a rural location without off-street parking, home charging is not possible and public charging costs erode the running cost advantage significantly. If you regularly tow a horsebox or a heavy trailer, current EV options reduce usable range dramatically. If your primary use case involves very long daily distances or unpredictable multi-stop rural routes, range anxiety remains a practical concern.
There is an irony in the current situation that is worth acknowledging. Ireland generates roughly 40% of its electricity from gas. A sustained rise in global gas prices — driven by the same Middle East conflict that is pushing up petrol prices — will eventually feed into electricity bills. The running cost advantage of an EV assumes stable or falling electricity prices. If wholesale gas prices remain elevated for months, electricity bills will rise, and the EV advantage narrows. It does not disappear — the differential is too large — but it is worth factoring in.
Fuel price spikes driven by geopolitical events are, by their nature, unpredictable in duration. Prices may fall in weeks if the conflict stabilises. They may stay elevated for a year or more if it does not. The 2022 Ukraine spike took eighteen months to materially unwind, and baseline petrol prices never fully returned to where they were before the invasion.
The argument for an EV in Ireland in March 2026 is stronger than it has ever been — but it should be made on long-term economics, not panic. Buying a car because petrol is €1.90 this week is the wrong reason. Buying a car because the structural running cost advantage of an EV is now €1,500–€2,000 per year, the used market has matured, and you have off-street parking — those are the right reasons.
If you are already considering an EV, the current situation does accelerate the payback period calculation meaningfully. If you were planning to keep your petrol or diesel car for another three years, now is a reasonable time to at least run the numbers on a switch.
For most Irish buyers with home charging capability and daily driving under 200km: a used Nissan Leaf 62kWh e+, Hyundai Ioniq 5, or Kia EV6 makes compelling financial sense at current fuel prices. For those without home charging or with rural/towing use cases: a modern efficient diesel (Mazda CX-5 Skyactiv-D, Toyota Corolla, or Hyundai Tucson diesel) remains the most practical choice — but hedge it with the understanding that fuel costs are unlikely to fall dramatically in the near term.
The broader point — which this crisis illustrates for the third time in a decade — is that Ireland's deep dependence on imported fossil fuels makes us structurally vulnerable to events thousands of kilometres away. Every tank of petrol is, in a small way, a financial connection to global geopolitics. The EV transition, whatever its timeline, is ultimately about energy security as much as it is about emissions.
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